Here’s my gut on the next morning of this historic election:
- Obama will try to govern from the center left for the first two years, not making the mistake that the Clintons did by over reaching (i.e. leading with nationalized health care in their first year). The extremely intelligent election strategy of “tax breaks for 95% of America,” and their stance on gay marriage shows that they understand the middle/center nature of the nation. This will greatly frustrate the far left. Look for a battle between the white house and the more liberal part of the congress on revival of the Fairness Doctrine to be a symbol of this rift. Once they have some “experience chips” Obama will move our country left farther than Clinton or Carter.
- The likely passage of Proposition 8 will not even come close to ending the controversy over same sex marriage.
- We are finally over the election of 2000 that created the red/blue neurosis of our deeply divided national psyche. By winning Florida the democrats have exercised one demon that was haunting them incessantly. The new red/blue map, if there is one, is not yet set but there is an opportunity to realign it for both parties.
- More grief from Russia soon.
- If Republicans cannot transition their dominance on talk Radio into being competitive on the Internet they will continue to struggle. Obama will continue to receive very favorable treatment from the press throughout his first term. Thinking that they can use traditional media outlets to make their case will be naive. University journalism schools are monolithically liberal and therefore our journalist will remain such in probably ever increasing ways. Talk radio alone is not enough to counteract this effect.
- Likewise, the Republicans must find voters that are Hispanic to be competitive.
- If a stable democracy is established in Iraq, the heart of the Caliphate, Bush’s legacy will be dramatically positive. Katrina, Rumsfield and the stumbling speeches will be forgotten. Dramatic progress in Africa, bullhorns on 9/11 and bringing democracy to the Middle East will in spite of great personal opposition and unpopularity will be remembered. If Iraq falls, he will be know as the worst president in the history of America.
- The credit crisis recession, while lingering into the first year of Obama will be less severe then has been predicted in the last two months.
- Palin and Obama are both Generation X leaders. This group, unjustly, has been short on respect from their Boomer and Millennial cohorts. Look for a few more savvy GenX leaders to come to the forefront in the next four years.